Spotify's Flop Era and What's Next for Music Curation

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What is Up with Spotify’s Algorithm?

I’ve been MIA for the past few weeks, searching for jobs and working on other projects. Regular newsletter content will resume soon, but in the meantime, here is a “Kickback”, a shorter issue focused on a topic related to culture and the new internet. Hope you like it!

Have you played a song on Spotify in the past month? Was the next song “Million Dollar Baby” or “Espresso”? I don't hate Tommy Richman or Sabrina Carpenter; both songs are amazing, and I enjoy them both, but I noticed that the Spotify algorithm is a bit different these days.

And I’m not the only one who noticed. Lots of people have taken to the internet to complain that Spotify is prioritizing popularity over discoverability. Common complaints include their autoplay feature constantly playing viral hits even if it doesn’t match the song before it, their smart shuffle feature overplaying the same songs, and playlists no longer recommending new music, instead opting for songs the user has already saved.

This current iteration of Spotify’s algorithm reminds me of the radio in the late 2000s. Granted, the music now is much better than the imitation EDM that dominated the airwaves at the time, but the complaint was similar - stations overplaying what’s “popular,” limiting discoverability for most listeners. As a result, ardent music fans turned to the internet to find new music. Blogs like Pigeons and Planes, 2 Dope Boyz, and Pitchfork (pre-Condé acquisition) became the new tastemakers, curating and reviewing music for their sizable reader bases. In 2011, Spotify launched in the US, ushering in the transition from mp3s to streaming over the following years. With the adoption of steaming, music blogs lost their influence to streaming algorithmic hyper-individualized playlists.

History is rhyming. If Spotify is what the radio was 15 years ago, then the blogs aren’t far behind. I predict that hand-curated music will make a comeback - albeit with a more social bent than in the past. Manual music curation has existed on TikTok for years, with users making videos sharing ultra-specific playlists and their favorite artists and songs. Onchain, Sonata, a Farcaster client, aggregates the music posts made within the Farcaster ecosystem; users can upvote and tip $DEGEN when they discover songs they like. Catalog is an onchain radio station that allows curators to share their favorite songs via online broadcast. If listeners like a song they hear during the broadcast, they can either buy the NFT or “cosign” - show onchain support for a song without buying the NFT outright - with proceeds mostly going to the artist.

All these solutions not only point to a desire to break out of the algorithm but also to a desire for community. Hand curation creates more opportunities for interaction and discussion among music fans than its algorithmic counterpart, which provides an atomized experience. Additionally, curators will play a bigger role in music discovery going forward. Listeners find comfort in knowing another human selected their new favorite song or playlist because it indicates care and intentionality in curating a consistent vibe. For example, if I find a Jazz House Garden playlist on TikTok, I’m confident I will not randomly hear Taylor Swift. Or Drake on a Real Hip-Hop playlist.

I don’t think this spells the end of streaming, but its role will change. Rather than being the primary source for music discovery, as it has been for the past few years, streaming will become a vehicle to access music. As an investor, I’m excited about platforms that allow listeners to interact and share music with other listeners and platforms where curation is compensated in some way. This shift towards a more community-driven digital music experience is not only inevitable but also immensely promising for both artists and fans.

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